TSMC Says Moore’s Law To Hit Snag in 6-8 Years
Gordon Moore proposed Moore s Law way back in 1965. Moore predicted that the number of components on the computer chip would double every 12 months. Gordon Moore updated his prediction to once every two years in 1975 and it has remained like that for more than 30 years. This week Morris Chang, chairman of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) said that semiconductor technological development will be faced with bottlenecks within the next 10 years, with Moore’s Law to witness insurmountable technological barriers in 6-8 years. This is something that is claimed every so many years, but so far it hasn’t been the case. My guess is that the ‘law’ gets extended in the years to come much like it did back in 1975.
TSMC has been participating in each stage of technology evolution in accordance with Moore’s Law, Chang said. When TSMC was established in 1987, its chip-fabrication technology lagged about two generations behind those of larger peers in the industry. But it now leads the foundry industry in the development of advanced processes with only two major competitors, Chang claimed. Nevertheless, Moore’s Law may soon encounter a bottleneck, Chang indicated. While the continuously shrinking of process technologies poses a challenge to the industry, companies will need other design innovations to extend Moore’s Law beyond its expected limits, Chang noted. For instance, there is room to miniaturize PCB components, Chang said. The market for emerging applications, which highlights low power consumption and audio-video capabilities, will be where the semiconductor industry will find its new development trend, Chang indicated.
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