DRAM Industry To Be In Up Cycle For Next 3 Years
Given the cyclical pattern that DRAM industry been through in past years, DRAMeXchange identify that individual completed industrial cycle is 3 years. According to Figure 1 for OPM analysis. DRAM vendors experienced three continuous lost from 2001-2003 and consecutive profit from 2004 to 2006, followed by another decline from 2007 to 2009. In 2010, DRAM vendors start to turn to profit and enter another profit cycle. Given the recovering global economy, corporate replacement and consumer stimulate by Windows 7, limited DRAM CAPEX and technology migration bottleneck, we DRAMeXchange expect DRAM industry likely enter another positive cycle with anticipated profit in next 3 years.
According to DRAMeXchange, 2010 smartphone shipment YoY growth rate is expected to be 28.6% that DRAMeXchange believe strong smartphone momentum will boost the demand of mobile DRAM. 2009 mainstream mobile DRAM density for smartphone is 128MB while 2010 mainstream mobile DRAM density for smartphone will be up to 256MB. DRAMeXchange expect 512 MB density will be designed for next generation smartphone. That is, given the strong shipment and content growth momentum, mobile DRAM will turn to another driver of DRAM demand. According to our check, Apples iPad shipment is estimated at 7.5M units in 2010 and its 512MB mobile DRAM spectrum will raise mobile DRAM demand. This situation will enable DRAM vendors such as Samsung, Hynix, Elpida to increase mobile DRAM output, which is expected to cannibalize the output for commodity DRAM capacity.
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